Fall federal election?

With the Summer parliamentary recess set to expire and the Commons scheduled to resume sitting this Fall, speculation about a date for the next federal election is heating up. Although PM Stephen Harper passed a fixed election date law earlier in his term that does not require an election until next Fall, it is unusual for minority parliaments to last for a full term and this particular minority government has already set a record for longevity. The two smaller opposition parties (the BQ and NDP) have made no secret of their desire to defeat the Harper government for some time, however rookie Official Opposition leader Stephane Dion has been biding his time, fearing a loss to Harper in the next election could prove fatal to his leadership.

A number of by-elections dates have already been set for early Fall which would become redundant in case of a general election call. Most pundits seem to believe that Harper will at least recall parliament to sit for a few weeks, to gauge its temperature and validate his claims that it is dysfunctional, in order to engineer his own downfall. This would help him justify a premature election call to voters. On the other side of the Commons floor, Dion also risks appearing like a weak leader seeking to avoid a test mano-a-mano against Harper out on the hustings if he does not take the election bait soon. Many of the local Grit candidates are said to be chomping at the bit, tired of being put on indefinite hold awaiting the campaign call.

So it appears almost inevitable that the next Canadian general election campaign may wind up overlapping with the US presidential election campaign. Current popular support polling levels suggest that an election would probably return another hung government although which party (Liberal or Conservative) would win seat gains or sustain losses in the battle for the plurality of the votes riding by riding would still be up in the air.

In any case, Fall is shaping up as an interesting season for political junkies like me!