The Ottawa Nightmare Before Christmas

The Coalition Accord presented in Ottawa yesterday by the Opposition party leaders may sidestep another immediate election, but it is unlikely to produce good strong stable government to guide us through the tough economic times we face over the 1 to 2.5 year fixed life contemplated by the proposed alternative government.

To my knowledge there is no precedent (even at the provincial level) in Canada for the vice-regal to permit a change in government to swear in a tri-party coalition headed by a party controlling less than 25% of the parliamentary seats in the legislature, where the two coalition partners' combined MPs outnumber the lead party's seat tally and where the PM designate will be a lame duck who has resigned and is scheduled to be replaced as leader (and PM) in 6 months.

The last time a coalition government served federally was in WWI when Tory PM Borden invited Liberal party members into his caucus. It is impossible to make a credible case that the current economic crisis requires a broader coalition to fight than the first world war.

Moreover, the growing perception among many Canadians (outside the Ottawa - Toronto - Montreal power corridor) is that this coup is a central Canada hatched backroom power play to rob the periphery of the legitimate political power earned in an electoral process that handed Harper a stronger mandate in October. The front page story in the Globe today reporting that Liberal leadership aspirants Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff cemented the deal over dinner in Iggy's luxury condo in Toronto's tony Yorkville (apparently he doesn't live in the Etobicoke riding he represents), only adds fuel to that simmering fire.

There is also a lingering suspicion that the economic statement (as partisan and ideologically provocative as it may have been) is more of a justification for the timing of the pre-planned power play than a legitimate reason provoking it (especially since the Tories have already backed away from the party funding and public sector strike freeze components of the package and pledged to deliver an early budget to offer more targeted fiscal stimulus).

What is the likely outcome of this period of tumult on parliament hill? I believe Harper is likely to play for time in order to mount a full frontal PR counter-offensive against the coalition plan. In that vain, he is likely to delay introduction of any confidence motions in the House and/or to ask the Governor General to prorouge parliament early for the Christmas recess (on the pretense of allowing the government time to prepare a full Budget to address the Opposition's expressed concerns). Strategically, it would be better for Harper to be defeated in the House on a full budget implementation bill containing fiscal stimulus "goodies" than to fall on a motion to implement the fiscal restraint measures outlined in the Economic and Fiscal Statement.

There is virtually no chance that a partisan scrapper like Harper will graciously hand over the reins of power quietly (as Dion called on him to do in Question Period yesterday.)

Among the open questions that Harper is likely to provoke in the Tory PR campaign expected to launch ASAP:

1. Is it legitimate for Dion-- a leader whose was so soundly rejected in the last election that he was forced to resign as Liberal leader-- to inherit the PMO for the next 6 months as a "lame duck"interim PM?

2. Is it legitimate for a leader chosen by a handful of Liberal party partisans to assume the PMO thereafter without seeking mandate from the broader electorate for up to 24 months following replacing Dion?

3. Does the NDP have sufficient depth of talent among their elected MP caucus to fill the 6 ministerial and 6 parliamentary secretary positions they have been allocated in the coalition Cabinet?

The next few weeks should be very interesting ones for Ottawa-watchers!