Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Fearless US election forecast

I am predicting a big win by Senator Barack Obama in tonight's US Presidential election.
Obama should smash through the 50.1% level of popular support attracted by Jimmy Carter back in 1976 (the highest tally by a recent Democratic winner) to become the first northern liberal elected to the Oval Office since JFK.
Based on my review of recent polling data, I expect Obama's popular vote percentage to exceed John McCain's by at least 8 percent and his electoral college vote total to be between 100 and 200 votes higher than McCain's. Obama will most likely double-up on McCain's electoral college vote tally. I do not expect McCain to win more than 20 states.

I am going to be aggressive in predicting the size of Obama's electoral college victory, as follows:

Obama-Biden 369
McCain-Palin 169

I have not been following the House and Senate races very closely, but suffice it to say that the Democrats should make big gains in both houses.

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